![[Aggregator] Downloaded image for imported item #26490](https://asiagategroup.com/wp-content/uploads/worldbox-slider-2-17-26.jpg "[Aggregator] Downloaded image for imported item #26490")
Worldbox Business Intelligence Risk Rating – February 2026
THAILAND
Summary
| Overall Risk Score 24/40 (Downgrade)
Political risk: Stable 5/10 Economic risk: Stable 6/10 Commercial risk: Downgrade 6/10 Technology risk: Stable 7/10 The risk assessment of a country is made up of four components, being Political, Economic, Commercial and Technological. Each component is scored out of 10 with 1 being the highest risk and 10 the lowest. |
ESG Risk: 6/10 (Stable)*
*Environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues are becoming increasingly important to companies, investors and consumers in Southeast Asia. That is why we are now preparing a separate ESG score and section with our quarterly country risk reports. We explain how each country rates, looking at the E, S and G individually, and outline recent developments. |
Political Risk – Stable at 5
Thailand is a constitutional monarchy. The legislature is bicameral, consisting of a directly-elected House of Representatives with 500 seats and an upper house, the Senate, all of whose members are appointed by the Royal Thai Military, under the new Constitution adopted in April 2017, to serve five-year terms.
The King is the Chief of State and the Monarchy is hereditary. Traditionally, he has little direct power but has been able to exert considerable influence over political affairs. In the case of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who reigned from 1946 until his death in 2016, that reflected popular respect. Thailand also has one of the harshest lèse-majesté laws in the world, under which people can be charged for posting, sharing or liking social media posts that are deemed offensive to the monarchy.
The royal family and military usually work in tandem, often using the lèse-majesté laws to suppress political dissent. They were used, for example, to justify the arrests of pro-democracy protesters by the government of former prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a military coup in 2014 and remained the country’s leader until August 2023. The 2014 power grab marked Thailand’s 13th successful coup since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.
As we forecast in our previous report, the Thai-Cambodian border dispute re-escalated in December. Renewed fighting between the two neighbouring countries had killed at least 32 people, including soldiers and civilians, and displaced around 800,000, by mid-December. Each side has blamed the other for instigating the clashes, claiming self-defence and trading accusations of attacks on civilians. The conflict stems from a territorial dispute over the colonial-era demarcation of their 800km border. Five days of fighting in July killed dozens of people before a truce was brokered by the United States, China and Malaysia.
Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh ceasefire agreement in late December but there is every likelihood that it will not last. A few days after the new pact was signed, Thailand accused Cambodia of breaking the deal.
Shortly after the renewed outbreak of fighting, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament and called for fresh elections, which were held on 8th February. Worldbox Business Intelligence believed that Anutin would aim to capitalise on a nationalist wave whipped up by the border conflict with Cambodia and this indeed proved the case. The fighting helped the Thai military rebuild its own waning popularity, and helped conservative elites to regain support from the rival Shinawatra family.
Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) won around 194 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, up from 71 seats in the 2023 poll. Meanwhile, the progressive People’s Party (PP), which led most of the political opinion polls in the run up to the vote, suffered a steep decline – taking just 116 seats, down from the 151 seats won by its predecessor Move Forward in 2023. The Shinanwatra family were the biggest losers, however. Their Pheu Thai (PT), came third with just 76 seats, down from 141 in 2023—underlining the party’s declining electoral power.
Worldbox Business Intelligence believes that BJT’s strong showing puts Anutin in the strongest position to form a coalition government. The most likely outcome is a BJT-led coalition with PT and smaller parties, particularly the royalist-nationalist Klatham Party (which won approximately 63 seats). Worldbox Business Intelligence does not expect any major changes in government policies.
Economic Risk – Stable at 6
Thailand has been one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic and successful tiger economies. The World Bank points out that over the past four decades, Thailand has made remarkable progress in social and economic development, moving from a low-income to an upper-middle-income country in less than a generation. The economy grew by an annual average of 7.5% during 1960–96 and by 5% during 1999–2005, following the Asian Financial Crisis.
However, concerns about the economy have grown over the past decade. As the OECD explains in a December 2025 report, “economic growth is weakening in the face of several long-term challenges. Catch-up in GDP per capita has slowed, and the pace of poverty reduction has diminished.”
Thailand faces a number of challenges that successive governments have failed to address. These include elevated household debt, an ageing population and low productivity. US tariffs, although reduced from the initially announced 36% to 19%, present a significant shock for the economy, while foreign tourist numbers have declined. The war with Cambodia and uncertainty about the long-term political outlook for the country are further problems.
The government has taken measures to address some of these challenges. In October, for example, the government said it would spend 10 billion baht (US$307 million) to buy bad debt. Thailand’s stubbornly high levels of household debt have shackled the economy for several years, with the ratio of household debt to GDP standing at 86.8% by the end of June, among the highest levels in Asia.
However, in November 2025 the IMF urged the government to do more. It called for “urgent structural reforms to strengthen resilience and improve growth potential. Key priorities include deepening trade and financial integration, reinvigorating structural transformation to boost labor productivity, and advancing export sophistication, alongside efforts to enhance social protection, governance, and climate resilience. Together, these policies would support stronger and more inclusive growth and facilitate external rebalancing.”
The OECD, in a December 2025 report, also called for further regulatory reforms, including easing restrictions on foreign direct investment and removing barriers to competition, to boost productivity. It added that creating a level playing field by reducing the dominant role of state-owned enterprises is also key to strengthening productivity in Thailand.
Commercial Risk – Downgrade from 7 to 6
Worldbox Business Intelligence has downgraded its commercial risk rating to 6 from 7 due a rise in NPLs (Please see previous bulletin for more details).
Thailand ranked 107th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, falling one place from 2023. It has fallen dramatically since 2015 when it was ranked in 38th place. Regionally, it lies behind Indonesia and Vietnam (in 99th and 88th place) respectively, Malaysia (ranked 57th) and Singapore (3rd).
Sornchai Chuwichien, assistant secretary-general of the National Anti-Corruption Commission said the fall in the score reflects a lack of transparency in the Thai government’s spending. There are concerns over “populist” policies, the use of the budget for personal gain, unreasonable spending, and a lack of cost-effectiveness.
Thailand ranks 85th in terms of economic freedom, according to the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 index, down from 42nd in 2021. The Foundation says that Thailand’s economic fundamentals remain relatively solid, but economic freedom still faces challenges that include the need to advance institutional reform. It cites persistent political instability, which undermines the country’s investment climate and economic potential, as a major concern. It adds that the judicial system remains inefficient and vulnerable to political interference, and corruption persists.
The US State Department’s 2025 Investment Climate Statement advises US entities (and the warning is applicable to all foreign entities) planning to invest in Thailand to obtain qualified legal advice. It explains that Thai business regulations are governed predominantly by criminal rather than civil law. It adds that while foreigners are rarely jailed for improper business activities, yet violations of business regulations can carry heavy criminal penalties.
Technology Risk – Stable at 7
The Global Innovation Index (GII), from the World Intellectual Property Organization, is an important index used by countries and multinational companies to assess innovation ecosystems and aid in policymaking and investment decisions.
Thailand ranked 45th out of 139 countries in the 2025 GII. Thailand ranks 10th among the 17 economies in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. It ranks 4th among the 36 Upper middle-income group economies.
The 2025 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking highlights Thailand’s decline in digital competitiveness. Thailand dropped one rank to 38th place, with technology being the main drag on its competitiveness, reflecting poor progress in several sub-factors, including regulatory frameworks, capital, and technological framework. A key weakness is the lack of private investment in AI, despite strong potential in this area.
Government policies
Thailand Digital Economy and Society Development Plan (2018–2037) is the country’s main plan for developing its digital economy and society which drives cross-sector collaboration as one of the driving mechanisms. The Plan aims to:
- Develop high-efficiency digital infrastructure nationwide.
- Drive the economy with digital technology.
- Build a society with thorough and equal quality with digital technology.
- Transform the public sector into digital government.
- Develop and prepare manpower for the era of digital economy and society.
- Build confidence in digital technology usage.
The National Board of Digital Economy and Society forecasts that Thailand’s digital economy will expand by 4.2% in 2026, slowing slightly from the 5.0% growth expected in 2025 but still growing twice as fast as the overall economy, which the Ministry of Finance projects to expand by only 2.0%.
The digital economy is expected to reach a value of 5.6 trillion baht in 2026. The digital economy should benefit from the upturn in the global electronics cycle, increased investment in advanced technologies, and strong growth in data centre businesses and AI adoption across industries — all key pillars of Thailand’s new digital infrastructure.
Infrastructure
Thailand is investing heavily in infrastructure, much of it focused on building its Eastern Economic Corridor. There are three key megaprojects at the core of these infrastructure plans:
- A high-speed rail linking Bangkok’s international airports at Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi, with the emerging aerospace hub at U-Tapao International Airport. The project is scheduled to begin construction soon. When completed, this will seamlessly link Bangkok with the future “Aerotropolis” at U-Tapao.
- The Laem Cha Bang deep seaport (Phase 3) upgrade seeks to increase its total cargo capacity to 18.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) per year using the automated system and advanced full-scale services. This project has an estimated cost of THB 114 billion. Construction is ongoing, with phased completion expected by 2027.
- Development of the U-Tapao International Airport and its “Aerotropolis”, promoting investments in aerospace and aviation-related industries. The Thai government has been in discussions with major international aerospace firms to develop aircraft maintenance and related facilities. The project will support the country’s vision of becoming an ASEAN technological, manufacturing and service hub with strong connectivity to its neighbours, the ASEAN region, and beyond.
In addition, Thailand aims to transform Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor into a digital powerhouse, focusing on telecom infrastructure and smart city development. The plan will focus on enhancing the digital infrastructure and services to be modern, efficient, and capable of supporting future technological investments. The overall goal is to improve the quality of life for the people in the area and develop the EEC into a smart city of international standards.
Education and skilled staff
Thailand faces a shortage of both quantity and quality in STEM workers, with its education system not yet able to produce a workforce that matches the needs of the modern labour market. An ageing work force is exacerbating the skills gap. Many experienced engineers are approaching retirement, leaving a gap that younger professionals are not yet equipped to fill. The lack of specialised training in robotics, artificial intelligence, and smart manufacturing further exacerbates the issue, as employers struggle to find candidates with the necessary skills. Thailand can address this problem by reforming its education system and encouraging students into STEM subjects. It could also ease work permit regulations, making Thailand an attractive destination for international engineers and other STEM specialists.
February Bulletin
Political Risk – Stable at 5
This outcome of the February 2026 election represents the first decisive victory for a conservative, royalist-establishment party in Thailand this century. It could take years for the reformist parties to regroup and attempt a comeback. The BBC reports that many of their leaders have already been banned from politics, their party has been dissolved twice, and one of their best members of parliament is likely to go to jail for six years on lese majeste charges. Even after their election loss, another 44 of their leading members now face bans from politics by the Supreme Court for supporting the proposal by Move Forward to soften the punishments under the lese majeste law.
The conflict with Cambodia is unlikely to affect relations between Thailand and China, which has close links to the Hun Sen regime, but it could damage ties with the US and Russia. Local newspapers in December have said that the police are investigating reports that foreign mercenaries, possibly Russian nationals hired by Cambodians, may have entered Thailand. The Russian embassy issued a sharp denial of any involvement by Russian nationals in the Thai-Cambodian conflict. It also warned that the reports could harm long-standing bilateral relations. Tens of thousands of Russians have flocked to Thailand following the outbreak of the Ukraine war, since it is one of the most desirable countries that they are still allowed to travel to.
More serious is the potential damage to Thai-US relations. President Trump claimed to have ended the Thai-Cambodian fighting, which initially broke out in July, by brokering a ceasefire. In December, after the conflict renewed, the president claimed to have achieved a new ceasefire but that claim was swiftly rejected by Bangkok. Trump later threatened to impose additional trade duties on Cambodia and Thailand if the two countries failed to stop the hostilities.
Economic Risk – Stable at 6
The economy grew by just 2.5% overall in 2024, lagging behind regional peers, following an expansion of only 1.9% in 2023. In December 2025, the central bank forecast growth of 2.2% in 2025, and an expansion of just 1.5% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The country is facing a number of headwinds including tepid private consumption, weighed down by high household debt, the impact of US tariffs on exports and the impact of the war with Cambodia which may further damage the already ailing tourism sector.
Officials predict international tourist arrivals will fall to 32 million in 2025, down from 35.5 million in 2024. Officials blamed the fall flooding in southern provinces during the peak season and fighting along the Thailand-Cambodia border.
Thailand is also suffering from a sharp fall in the number of Chinese visiting Thailand. Chinese tourist arrivals have fallen by over 34% compared to pre-pandemic levels, with projections for 2025 significantly lower than in 2019. Concerns over security is the main reason for the decline in Chinese visitors, fuelled by reports of high-profile crimes on social media.
Tourism accounted for around 20% of GDP before the pandemic in 2019 and created employment for millions of often low-skilled Thais. The government is so concerned that it is considering offering free domestic flights to foreign tourists coming to the country in 2025.
The Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% in December to help bolster economic growth, marking the first easing by the central bank since August. The country’s economy has been growing at a slower rate than its ASEAN peers, due in part to external risks and domestic political uncertainties.
Moreover, inflation remains subdued, falling for eight consecutive months to minus 0.49% in November, well below the central bank’s target of 1% to 3%, allowing the central bank to ease monetary policy. Worldbox Business Intelligence expects further cuts next year with the policy rate falling to around 0.75%.
Commercial Risk – Downgrade from 7 to 6
In September. Fitch downgraded Thailand’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing rising risks to public finances from prolonged political uncertainty and weakening growth prospects. The rating company affirmed the Southeast Asian nation’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at “BBB+.” The agency added that the country’s fiscal buffers have eroded, with gross general government debt climbing to 59.4% of gross domestic product in August after years of large stimulus and repeated delays in fiscal consolidation.
The central bank also warned in December that bank lending continues to contract and the credit quality of vulnerable groups is deteriorating, while small and medium enterprises face a liquidity crunch stemming from limited access to credit and the strengthening Thai baht.
In December 2025, the Kasikorn Research Centre warned that the financial sector is grappling with a severe challenge as Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) surge, “reflecting a dangerous escalation in debt fragility across all segments”. The report warned that the NPL ratio is now nearing the critical 3% level (projected at 2.8% to 2.85% for 2025), with the problem spreading from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to medium and large corporations—a highly concerning development. This development has caused us to lower our risk rating to 6 from 7.
Technology Risk – Stable at 7
In the previous bulletin, Worldbox Business Intelligence reported on how Bangkok is swiftly becoming a prominent hub for data centres in Southeast Asia, underpinned by robust energy infrastructure, according to Energy Digital publication. This quarter has seen further significant developments. In November 2025, for example, officials announced the approval of further major data centre projects. These include a 7.55bn baht investment in a data centre project with an information technology load of 12MW, to be located in the Huai Khwang District of Bangkok. The money is being invested by Telehouse (Thailand) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Japan’s KDDI Corporation.
In addition, Vistas Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China’s ZDATA Technologies Co., Ltd. and its Singapore-based unit ZDATA Cloud Technology Pte. Ltd., has received approval for a 9.09bn baht investment in a data centre project with an IT load of 80MW in the Amata City Chonburi Industrial Estate, Chonburi Province.
NextGen Data Center and Cloud Services Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Dubai-based DAMAC Digital, which is a major data centre service provider in the Middle East, has received approval for a 26.7bn baht investment in a data centre project with an IT load of 84 MW, in the Navanakorn Industrial Estate, Pathum Thani Province.
Finally, Zenith Data Centre and Cloud Services Co., Ltd., a related company, have also received approval for a 54.9bn baht investment in a hyperscale data centre project with an IT load of 200MW, which will also be established in the Navanakorn Industrial Estate, Pathum Thani Province.
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) – Stable at 6
The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are recognized as a beneficial framework for responsible investment. The Sustainable Development Report from Cambridge University Press assesses the progress of all UN Member States on the SDGs. It provides a useful means of ranking Southeast Asian countries on their ESG progress.
Thailand is ranked 43 out of 167 in the 2025 report, with a score of 75.34.
The US State Department’s 2024 Investment Climate Statement says that Thailand is among the top countries in the world for environmental, social and governance disclosures, with both the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Bank of Thailand focused on this issue. New SEC regulations on Sustainable and Responsible Investing fund disclosure requirements came into effect in April 2022, and the SEC, as the stock-exchange regulator, mandates ESG reporting for listed companies in the 56-1 One Report annual public filing.
Environment – Thailand faces some severe environmental issues. Air pollution is among the most serious, particularly during “the burning season”, when farmers in Thailand and surrounding countries burn off stubble. The season lasts from December to May. In December 2025, five provinces were found to be in the red zone, indicating pollution well above safe limits and posing risks to respiratory health, while 41 provinces were in the orange zone, where air quality is beginning to affect vulnerable groups.
The issue of deforestation is more severe in Thailand than in many other Southeast Asian countries, primarily due to the rapid clearance of forests to accommodate agricultural expansion necessitated by population growth and the country’s focus on exporting agricultural products. The government is seeking to curb deforestation, but challenges persist, with incidences of illicit tree cutting and conversion of forested land into agricultural use continuing to pose threats to conservation efforts.
Social – The law provides for the right of workers in certain private-sector and state-owned enterprises to form and join independent trade unions, while Thais also enjoy the right to universal healthcare and a pension. There is a minimum wage law, although it does not cover some areas, such as government officers, state enterprise employees, domestic workers, maritime workers and agricultural workers.
Governance – Thailand ranked ninth on the Asian Corporate Governance Association’s recent report card on 12 Asia-Pacific markets in 2023, down from eighth place in 2020. Thailand’s fall was due in particular to lower scores for listed companies, investor participation and public governance. In 2024, the SEC and Stock Exchange of Thailand introduced new rules to flag or suspend the stock of troubled companies and escalate investigations.
February Bulletin
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) – Stable at 6
A November 2025 report from Deloitte has found that rapid regulatory progress in the adoption of ESG principles has positioned Thailand as an influential player in the region’s green transition. However, Deloitte notes that companies need to invest more in systems, governance, and supply chain visibility to meet ESG demands, and tap on sustainable finance.
Latest economic data
f forecasts
* Worldbox Business Intelligence
Source: IMF January 2024, World Bank except where stated
Source: Worldbox
Useful links
https://www.imf.org/en/countries/tha
About Worldbox Business Intelligence
Switzerland-based Worldbox Business Intelligence is a global leader in business data and intelligence. With over 400 million companies across all major and emerging markets, our solutions support real-time onboarding, KYB, and compliance verification through the delivery of credit reports, profiles, ownership and management, legal status and history details as well as financial and other business information.
Accessible via API, online search, and the AWS MCP Servers, available over AWS marketplace, Worldbox enables organizations to search, evaluate, and acquire company data with transparent pricing and seamless AI integration.
With its global network and Swiss precision, Worldbox empowers smarter, more efficient business decision-making.
“Worldbox Business Intelligence – Bringing Swiss Precision To Data”
 |
 |
 |
 |
Copyright (C) 2026 Worldbox Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is:
Worldbox Business Intelligence
Breitackerstrasse 1
Zollikon
Zurich 8702
Switzerland
